Area 4 Data Project · October update

The welcome letters go out by mail service this week, and 4,700 Democratic mail ballots in Area 4 are still at home

Two updates tonight, both short. The new-Democrat welcome letters moved from one volunteer’s kitchen table to a print-and-mail service, and the county mail-ballot tracker now shows every Area 4 precinct, updated each weekday from the state’s file. Everything on screen is aggregate counts from public records.

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Area 4 mail ballots by precinct

Requests and returns from the state’s mail-ballot file as of October 8, 2026. Dem still out is Democratic requests minus Democratic returns, the number that shrinks when someone gets a call. The last two columns are every mail ballot the precinct cast in 2022 and 2024, from the county’s certified results, for scale. The live version of this table, with every Montgomery County precinct and a weekday refresh, is at montco-mail-ballots.pages.dev.

Swipe sideways for the rest of the columns.

PrecinctDem requestsRepOtherAll requestsAll returnedDem returnedDem still outMail 2022Mail 2024

New Democrats since the May primary, by municipality

Active voters registered as Democrats from May 20 through September 25, 2026, from the state voter file dated September 28. “Since last month’s file” is registrations after September 4, the cutoff of the file shown at the September meeting.

MunicipalityNew DemsUnder 26Since last month’s file

Welcome letters: how it works now

You send, onceYour letter text (or “use Upper Providence’s”) and your committee people by precinct
The list pulls itselfNew Democrats in your municipality from the state voter file, with precinct and polling place filled in
Printed and mailedA print-and-mail service prints, stuffs, stamps and mails each letter, about a dollar apiece, paid through a municipal committee’s account
You keepYour content, your signature, and the choice of a photo beside each committee person’s name

There is no monthly batch any more. A municipality’s letters go out the day its two inputs arrive, and each voter gets one letter, ever. Upper Providence (pilot, mailed Sept 1) and Royersford go out this week; Skippack, Limerick and Trappe are opted in. To add yours, email Ben or me by mid-October so the letters land before the Oct 27 mail-ballot deadline. The September walkthrough, with the full Upper Providence letter, is at area4-data.pages.dev/letters.

Questions people ask

Where do the mail-ballot numbers come from, and why do they differ from VoteBuilder?

From the Pennsylvania Department of State’s statewide mail-ballot file, which the state posts every weekday morning and which lists every application with its precinct, party and dates. VoteBuilder loads the same county data on its own schedule, so it usually runs a day or two behind, and it counts a few things differently (cancelled and replacement ballots, voters who moved). The tracker shows the state file; when the two disagree by more than a day’s worth of change, the tracker’s methodology section says why.

What does “returned” mean?

The county has the voted ballot back and has logged it. It does not mean counted; counting happens on Election Day. A ballot that comes back with a problem the voter can fix (a missing signature or date, no secrecy envelope) shows as returned with a cure flag, and the county party works those separately.

Can I see my precinct?

Yes. The table above has all 34 Area 4 precincts, and montco-mail-ballots.pages.dev has every precinct in the county with a search box, daily history, and the same-point comparison with 2022 and 2024. The companion page /who breaks requests out by age band and party.

Who are the 4,700?

Democrats in Area 4 with a mail ballot requested and not yet returned. Their names are not on any page. Anyone with VoteBuilder list access can pull them there (the county loads mail-ballot status into VoteBuilder), which is how a chase call list gets made.

Is any individual voter information on these pages?

No. Every number is an aggregate count from public records (the state voter file and the state mail-ballot file, both purchased or obtained for political use, which is what they are licensed for). The welcome letters use voter-file data for mailing only, and nothing from them is published.

What is the deadline?

Tuesday, October 27 at 5 PM is the last day the county can receive a mail-ballot application. Ballots must be back at the county by 8 PM on Election Day, November 3; postmarks do not count. October 19 is the last day to register.